Good morning Traders!
The Crude Oil chart (CL) and the No Lead Gasoline chart (RB) have many elements in
common, today I’m going to discuss why I prefer to stalk a potential short on RB
No Lead Gasoline – Watching for the End of the Pullback
No Lead Gasoline is in a confirmed down trend on the Daily, Weekly and the Monthly
timeframes. Along the way it broke key support and resistance level, with the latest one
being around the 22.6 area, where after several attempts by the buyer to push the price
higher, sellers took over once again and pushed the price to a new Lower Low. With the
market being overextended from it’s moving averages a pullback has taken place to
release some of the selling pressure. Currently the market is in a process of pulling back,
with the daily chart back at the averages.
For potential opportunity in the direction of the overall trend, I’d like to see the market
testing the 22.6 level from below, rejecting it, and heading towards the previous daily
swing Low at around 22.2 with either price compression at this level, or a break and
retrace of this level on the lower timeframes.
An added technical element on this chart is the somewhat equal touches at the daily
Lower High around the 24.1 area, and the Fibonacci retracement of the latest daily move,
has the 50% retracement clustering with the previous daily swing low and the 61.8% is
clustering with the 22.6 S/R level.
Looking at the Crude Oil chart, even though these products are very similar in nature,
there are other elements which can affect their price from a fundamental point of view
(such as refinery costs). From a technical analysis point of view, the chart of Crude Oil has
the Daily printing a Higher High before dropping into a Lower Low, and the current
pullback has already surpass the previous Daily Swing Low, also, the Fibonacci
retracement, does not provide me with any clear clustering levels.
Therefore, I currently prefer the RB chart over the CL chart, but as the setup is not fully
baked for me yet, I’ll be keeping an eye on both charts.