Last Week’s Economic Highlights
U.S. Data Discrepancies
One of the major highlights from last week was the Empire State Manufacturing Index, which came in at a disappointing -4.6, although it was better than the forecasted -6.4. This paints a less-than-rosy picture for the manufacturing sector in the New York region, suggesting that traders should tread carefully.
New Zealand CPI Misses the Mark
The New Zealand Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the last quarter was also noteworthy. While it increased to 1.8%, it fell slightly short of the 1.9% forecast, signaling that inflationary pressures are still a concern but not as intense as anticipated.
Retail Sales Surprise
In contrast, U.S. Retail Sales exceeded expectations, rising by 0.7% compared to the forecast of 0.3%. This suggests that consumer spending, a crucial component of economic growth, remains robust.
Unemployment Trends
U.S. Unemployment Claims dipped to 198K, beating the forecast of 210K. This could be indicative of a stronger job market and could have implications for future monetary policy.
Market Trends
Currencies & Commodities
In the forex market, EURUSD is looking like it may break higher. Gold, in particular, has been the market’s shining star, suggesting investor preference for safe havens.
Crypto & Oil
Cryptocurrencies and Crude Oils are also displaying bullish tendencies, suggesting that traders are looking for higher yields despite higher risks.
Equities and Indices
On the downside, Equities and Global Indices ended the week with strong bearish signals right at major support levels. This could hint at significant selling pressure in the coming week.
What to Watch in the Week Ahead
British Economic Indicators
Claimant Count Change data from the UK will be a focal point. Any significant deviations could impact the Pound and UK equities.
PMI Data
Various Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data from both the Eurozone and the U.S. will be released. These are key indicators of economic health.
Federal Reserve Speeches
Fed Chair Powell will be speaking twice this week. His comments could have far-reaching impacts on the U.S. Dollar and equities.
Core PCE Price Index
On Friday, the U.S. Core PCE Price Index will be released, with a month-on-month expected growth rate of 0.3%. This is another key indicator of inflation and can influence the Fed’s monetary policy.
Looking at the charts, we see EURUSD printing a very bullish weekly candle, showing the EUR’s intention to push higher. How much higher is still to be seen.
The gold chart shows nothing but bullish price action. However, the price must surely retrace during the week before pushing higher. Is 2,000 the next major target?
Now, to the Global Indices:
The SP500 very large, bearish candle, selling until the close- next week it will be important to watch how the next candle unfolds!
UT100 tech stocks have also produced a heavy selling candle, so the pressure is clearly to the downside.
US30 has a bearish engulfing, tight close. The bears are really putting the pressure on!
Keep your eyes peeled and your strategies flexible to navigate through these potentially market-moving events. Good luck and happy trading!
